Updated
Updated · Yahoo Sports · Sep 15
Analyst Backs 3 Week 3 College Football Underdogs Against Spreads of 29.5, 23.5 and 3.5
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Sports · Sep 15

Analyst Backs 3 Week 3 College Football Underdogs Against Spreads of 29.5, 23.5 and 3.5

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Sep 15

Summary

  • Three early Week 3 picks target Michigan State +29.5, New Mexico +23.5 and North Carolina +3.5, arguing recent blowout wins have inflated Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Clemson.
  • Michigan State’s case rests on pace and ball security: the Spartans hold possession for 37:18 a game, have no interceptions from Alessio Milivojevic, and face a Notre Dame run game averaging just 114.5 yards.
  • New Mexico gets support because Oklahoma scored only 10 points at Michigan a week after routing UTEP 51-0, while the Lobos have posted 108 points in two games despite Jack Layne’s absence.
  • North Carolina is the third play after Clemson’s line fell from -5.5 to -3.5 when QB Christopher Vizzina hurt his elbow, leaving true freshman Tait Reynolds to make his first career start.
  • The broader thesis is that Week 3 markets are leaning too heavily on lopsided early scoreboards rather than matchup details such as tempo, proven scoring ability and quarterback uncertainty.

Insights

Can Michigan State's ball-control strategy expose Notre Dame's defense, or is the massive point spread a trap for underdog bettors?
Are sportsbooks exploiting recency bias by heavily inflating point spreads for early-season college football favorites like Oklahoma and Notre Dame?
Will Clemson's true freshman quarterback crumble under pressure, paving the way for a shocking North Carolina upset in Week 3?