Woodley Backs Muhammad at RAF 13, Calls Chimaev-Burns a Toss-Up

Q: Is Woodley's prediction for Belal Muhammad based on genuine skill analysis or pure loyalty to his training partner?

Woodley’s pick leans more toward loyalty than detached analysis, though it is not pure blind allegiance. His own words make that clear. He opened with, “Belal is my teammate. So I’m going to go with Belal,” and also called Muhammad “my brother.” That is an explicit admission that personal ties are driving the prediction. Woodley and Covington also have a well-known rivalry, which further weakens the idea that this was a neutral breakdown. At the same time, Woodley did offer a performance-based reason rather than only cheering for a friend. He acknowledged that Covington has the stronger technical résumé, saying “skill-wise and technique-wise, he’s got the stuff behind him,” but argued that Muhammad “always overachieved” and should not be counted out. That suggests Woodley sees Muhammad as a reliable competitor who exceeds expectations, even if he is not the flashier or more naturally favored wrestler. So the fairest reading is that Woodley’s prediction is a mix, but weighted toward loyalty. His reasoning includes a real competitive assessment of Muhammad’s toughness, consistency and ability to outperform expectations. Still, because he openly framed the pick around their teammate relationship, it is hard to portray it as a purely objective skill analysis.

Q: Will Chimaev's lingering injuries give Gilbert Burns the ultimate edge in their highly anticipated RAF 13 wrestling showdown?

Chimaev’s lingering injuries could help Gilbert Burns, but they do not appear to give Burns a clear overall edge. The strongest evidence still points to Chimaev as the better pure wrestling favorite. He is a decorated freestyle wrestler, has already looked dominant in RAF, and most recently pinned Tyron Woodley in 94 seconds at RAF Moscow. Burns himself has acknowledged that Chimaev is the better wrestler, bigger athlete, and more experienced competitor under this ruleset. Where the injuries matter is in the kind of match Burns is trying to force. Burns has openly said his path is to push pace, make Chimaev work, and test his gas tank. That lines up with concerns already raised by Woodley, who called the matchup a toss-up despite Chimaev’s wrestling advantage, specifically because Burns has the cardio, toughness, and scrappy movement to create problems. Chimaev has also admitted he is carrying multiple injuries, has delayed surgeries, and often competes compromised. Even so, the injury story is more a vulnerability than proof of decline. Chimaev’s recent RAF performances do not show an obvious drop-off, and if he controls ties early and imposes his wrestling before the match becomes extended and exhausting, Burns may never get the chance to exploit those weaknesses. So Burns’ best chance is clear: drag Chimaev into a hard, high-output battle. But unless Chimaev’s health issues show up in real time, they are not enough on their own to make Burns the likely winner.

3 articles · Updated · MMA Sucka · Sep 15

Tyron Woodley picked Belal Muhammad to beat Colby Covington in Friday’s RAF 13 main event in Miami, citing Muhammad’s habit of overachieving despite Covington’s technical edge.
Woodley was less decisive on the co-headliner, saying Khamzat Chimaev is the better wrestler but Gilbert Burns could create problems with stronger cardio, making the match a toss-up.
Both bouts fall under Real American Freestyle on September 18, with Covington defending the cruiserweight crossover title against Muhammad and Chimaev meeting Burns at catchweight.
Woodley’s view carries personal context: Chimaev pinned him in 94 seconds at RAF Moscow on September 5, while Woodley also has past UFC losses to Burns and Covington and a long training relationship with Muhammad.