JPMorgan said Greece’s recovery has become more credible and resilient, but warned the next phase of growth is not assured as the economy shifts away from post-crisis catch-up drivers.
8% unemployment, down from 28%, and a fiscal surplus underpin that view, alongside investment-grade status and a government target to reach an A rating by 2030.
146% gross debt remains high, but JPMorgan said long maturities, mostly fixed rates and early repayments should keep refinancing risks contained, with the ratio seen falling to 134% by 2027.
16.9% investment-to-GDP in 2025, up from 11.3% in 2018, shows investment is broadening growth, though convergence with the EU is still incomplete.
1.4% medium-term growth would mark a slowdown as EU recovery funding winds down and demographics bite, leaving productivity gains, private investment and a larger tradable sector as the key test.