Updated · Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty · Sep 20
Russia's Rassvet-3 Misses 800-Km Orbit for 32 Satellites as Starlink Cutoff Exposes Gaps
Updated
Updated · Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty · Sep 20
Russia's Rassvet-3 Misses 800-Km Orbit for 32 Satellites as Starlink Cutoff Exposes Gaps
1 articles · Updated · Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty · Sep 20
Summary
Bureau 1440’s first 32 operational Rassvet-3 satellites have struggled in orbit: none of the March-launched 16 reached the planned 800 kilometers, and three from the July batch have already fallen to 300 kilometers or lower.
The failures matter because Russia is racing to replace lost Starlink access in Ukraine, where low-latency satellite links proved critical for command, control and drone operations and their cutoff hurt Russian assaults.
Only 13 satellites from each launch are climbing at all, with the first group stuck around 510 kilometers and analysts suspecting engine problems; one satellite from the first batch already burned up.
Even if launches improve, analysts say the constellation is too small for continuous coverage now and may not support nonstop communications over Ukraine until 2028 at best, or 2030 if delays persist.
Ground terminals and vulnerable infrastructure could be a bigger bottleneck still, with no public sign of mass terminal production and Ukrainian strikes already targeting launch, control and supply-chain nodes.
If Ukraine successfully destroys Russia's ground terminals and launch facilities, is the ambitious Rassvet satellite project already doomed before it begins?
With recent orbital failures and decaying satellites, can Russia's aerospace industry survive component shortages to build its Starlink clone?
As Russia's 2026 satellite launches mysteriously fail to reach orbit, will hidden supply chain flaws permanently cripple their battlefield drone operations?