Micron Guides Q4 Revenue to $50 Billion as $100 Billion Deals Still Leave Ceiling Risk
Updated
Updated · Trefis · Sep 16
Micron Guides Q4 Revenue to $50 Billion as $100 Billion Deals Still Leave Ceiling Risk
3 articles · Updated · Trefis · Sep 16
Summary
$50 billion in fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance has become Micron’s next valuation test, with the company due to report on Sept. 30 after a fifth straight quarterly revenue record.
20.7 times earnings still leaves Micron cheaper than a slower-growing peer at 26.6 times, even though Micron posted 167% revenue growth, slightly better operating margins and a 490.9% 12-month stock return.
16 strategic customer agreements running from 2026 to 2030 underpin that performance, with 14 take-or-pay contracts carrying about $100 billion of minimum revenue and covering roughly 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume.
40% of company revenue could eventually sit under fixed prices or price ceilings, however, and the largest contracts generally cap existing-product prices at calendar Q2 2026 market levels, limiting upside if memory prices rise further.
That mix explains why investors are paying for Micron’s current earnings but not fully for future profits: the discount reflects doubt that today’s shortage-driven margins can persist once more business is locked in.