Climate Impact Lab Projects 451,000 El Niño Heat Deaths by February 2027
Updated
Updated · CNN · Sep 23
Climate Impact Lab Projects 451,000 El Niño Heat Deaths by February 2027
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Sep 23
Summary
451,000 additional heat deaths could occur worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, according to a new Climate Impact Lab report released before peer review because El Niño is strengthening rapidly.
1.2°C above-normal land temperatures in coming months and 44% more extreme-heat days are expected as a super-sized El Niño compounds fossil-fuel-driven warming, the study says.
Nigeria faces the highest projected toll at 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil; the United States ranks in the top 20 affected countries with about 3,500 deaths.
24,000 regions were analyzed against 1996-2025 average-year mortality patterns, and the authors warn the toll could rise because El Niño is likely to persist into Northern Hemisphere spring and summer.
Early heat warnings, cooling and hydration centers, health action plans and broader healthcare access could still reduce deaths, while the researchers cast this El Niño as a preview of climate conditions expected in about 20 years.