Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · Sep 23
Cook Shifts South Carolina Senate Race to Likely Republican as 3 Contests Move Toward Democrats
Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · Sep 23

Cook Shifts South Carolina Senate Race to Likely Republican as 3 Contests Move Toward Democrats

3 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · Sep 23

Summary

  • South Carolina’s Senate race was downgraded Wednesday from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” signaling unusual vulnerability in a seat the GOP has held since 1964.
  • Cook Political Report still calls newly sworn-in Sen. Darline Graham the heavy favorite, but said Trump’s unpopularity, an anti-incumbent mood and rising living costs are eroding Republican strength.
  • Kansas and Georgia were also shifted toward Democrats, prompting Cook to say next year’s Senate majority is now a true coin flip with viable paths for either party.
  • The South Carolina contest has drawn added attention because Graham is defending the seat long held by her late brother, Lindsey Graham, in a state Republicans have controlled for decades.

Insights

What hidden factors are causing a massive 16-point swing between different election polls for South Carolina's historically stable Senate seat?