Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Sep 24
Susan Collins Leads Maine Senate Race by 1 Point in NYT/Siena Poll
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Sep 24

Susan Collins Leads Maine Senate Race by 1 Point in NYT/Siena Poll

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Sep 24

Summary

  • Susan Collins edged Democrat Troy Jackson by 1 point in a new New York Times/Siena poll, the first survey since July to show the Maine Republican ahead.
  • That result breaks with recent polling: since Graham Platner left the race in July, Jackson had led by roughly 3 to 4 points on average, including a 3-point CNN/SSRS advantage before Labor Day.
  • The Times described its poll as a modest outlier but argued it should not be dismissed, because Maine is one of the relatively Democratic-leaning seats central to Democrats' bid to flip the Senate.
  • Without Maine, Democrats would likely need to win 3 seats in states Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 — such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas or Kansas — making their path far tougher.

Insights

How does a sudden polling shift in Maine reveal hidden voter behaviors that traditional surveys consistently miss?