Packers Favored by 4.5 Points Over Falcons as Penix Jr. Makes 2026 Debut

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Sep 24

Green Bay enters Thursday night as a 4.5-point favorite at Lambeau, with the preview backing the Packers to cover and calling for a lower-scoring game around the 42.5 total.
Michael Penix Jr. gives Atlanta needed quarterback stability after an 0-2 start, but the expected game plan still runs through Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 18.5 carries against a Packers front allowing 2.9 yards per carry.
Jordan Love has completed just 52.1% of his passes, yet his eight throws of 20-plus yards rank fifth in the league, supporting bets tied to Green Bay's passing game and targets such as Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft.
Atlanta's own prop appeal centers on volume for Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr., especially against a Packers defense playing zone on 70.5% of opponent dropbacks.
The matchup follows earlier projections of a Packers home win, with Green Bay chasing a 2-1 start and Atlanta trying to avoid falling to 0-3 in Penix's first start of the season.