Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 24
30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.44%, Highest Since 2004 as Fed Hike Bets Climb
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 24

30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.44%, Highest Since 2004 as Fed Hike Bets Climb

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Sep 24

Summary

  • The 30-year Treasury yield touched about 5.44% on Thursday—its highest since 2004—before easing to 5.399%, extending a selloff that also pushed the 10-year to 5.10% after an intraday peak last seen in 2007.
  • A more-than-75% market-implied chance of an October Fed hike, up from roughly 49% a week earlier, drove the move after strong U.S. data, high oil prices and hawkish signals from Fed officials.
  • John Williams said another rate increase by year-end would be "reasonable," while Governor Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely to return inflation to target.
  • The bond rout spread globally, lifting Japan's 10-year yield to its highest since 1996 and sending U.K. gilt and German Bund yields to fresh multi-year highs.
  • Investors are now pricing in four rate hikes through next year, raising concern that tighter policy could tip the Fed toward a policy mistake.

Insights

Will the sudden spike in global bond yields trigger a catastrophic collapse in the housing market before the year ends?
Could massive AI investments be secretly engineering a permanent era of high interest rates, forever changing how we borrow money?
Are central banks blindly marching toward a global recession by treating temporary supply shocks as permanent inflation threats?