Israel Holds 60% of Gaza but Stalls Trump’s 20-Point Postwar Plan Before Oct. 27 Vote
Updated
Updated · rand.org · Sep 22
Israel Holds 60% of Gaza but Stalls Trump’s 20-Point Postwar Plan Before Oct. 27 Vote
3 articles · Updated · rand.org · Sep 22
Summary
Israeli policy still centers on managing Gaza’s conflict rather than replacing Hamas, with leaders vowing a long-term presence even as Hamas continues governing more than 95% of the population.
That gap persists because Israel has blocked the main alternative governance track in Trump’s 20-point plan: National Committee members remain in Cairo, 6,000 vetted police recruits have not begun training, and an international force base is stalled.
Hamas has also slowed the process, but in August it accepted a 15-principle disarmament roadmap tied to an Israeli withdrawal, leaving Israel open to criticism that it is refusing to test Hamas’s commitments.
Domestic politics is a major brake ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election, with Netanyahu’s coalition and rivals alike avoiding compromise on Gaza even though any next government is likely to inherit the U.S.-backed framework.
Without a political horizon and functioning non-Hamas governance, the alternative is renewed war or a lasting split between an Israeli-held east and Hamas-run west—risking a return to a pre-Oct. 7 model of contained but rebuilding Hamas.