Global Diesel Prices Surge to $6.52 a Gallon as Refinery Outages Cut Supply

Q: With UK diesel hitting record highs from overseas conflicts, will everyday grocery bills skyrocket as haulage costs are passed to consumers?

Grocery bills are likely to rise, but not “skyrocket” across the board unless diesel stays near record levels for a sustained period and retailers pass through the full cost. The link from pump prices to supermarket shelves is real. Diesel powers lorries, vans, farm machinery and refrigerated transport, and the RAC is right that higher haulage costs usually feed into goods and services. The UK is especially exposed because it imports roughly 54% to 55% of its road diesel, while global refined diesel supply is tight because of Middle East disruption, pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and damage to refineries elsewhere. Analysts say a $10 rise in oil can add about 7p a litre at the pump. But fuel is only one part of a grocery bill. Industry evidence suggests a 10% rise in fuel prices tends to add about 2% to 4% to total logistics costs, not to final retail prices. Food inflation also moves with a lag, sometimes many months, and supermarket competition can blunt or delay the pass-through. Recent UK inflation data showed food price pressures had not yet surged in line with fuel, even as transport costs rose. The biggest risks are to goods that are bulky, low-margin, heavily transported or chilled, such as fresh produce, meat, dairy and delivered groceries. If diesel stays near or above £2 a litre for weeks, households should expect more upward pressure at the till. But a sharp, immediate jump in every grocery category is not the most likely outcome unless the energy shock deepens.

3 articles · Updated · DW (English) · Sep 28

$6.52 a gallon is the latest US weekly average diesel price, up from $3.74 a year ago, as diesel climbs faster than crude and raises transport, farming and industrial costs.
Nearly 30% of Russia's diesel output has been lost from 2025 levels after repeated Ukrainian strikes on refineries, while the Hormuz conflict has kept refining flows depressed and tightened global supply.
Europe is especially exposed because it imports diesel: EU drivers are paying about €30 more per 50-liter tank since the Iran war began, and extra road-diesel costs have reached €40 billion.
US export curbs under consideration could deepen the squeeze because US shipments to Europe are up about 37% from last year and now cover roughly 8% of European demand.
Winter demand for heating oil and diesel, combined with refinery closures since 2019, has left the market with little spare capacity, making each new outage hit prices faster.

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DW (English)12d ago

Global Diesel Prices Surge Amid Ukraine Drone Attacks and Hormuz Conflict

bbc.co.uk12d ago

UK Diesel Price Hits All-Time High Amid Middle East Conflict

LBC12d ago

Price of diesel hits all-time high as conflict in Middle East rages on | LBC

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