Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Sep 28
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.25% as Fed, Iran War and AI Spur Sell-Off
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Sep 28

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.25% as Fed, Iran War and AI Spur Sell-Off

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Sep 28

Summary

  • The 10-year Treasury yield climbed about 5 basis points to 5.25% on Monday, its highest since 2007, as a broad bond sell-off pushed long-dated US yields to multidecade highs.
  • The 30-year yield rose 6 basis points to 5.57%—a level last seen in 2004—while the 2-year gained 8 basis points to 4.93%, showing pressure across the curve.
  • Fed expectations remain the main driver after this month’s quarter-point hike and projections showing most policymakers expect at least one more increase, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate outlook.
  • Oil-price pressure from the war in Iran, rising US debt and deficits, and heavy AI-related spending on data centers, chips and power have added inflation risks and intensified competition for capital.

Insights

Why are Treasury yields surging again, and is oil-driven inflation creating a new higher-for-longer era for borrowing costs?
Are rising Treasury yields really about Fed policy, or are investors demanding a new risk premium for inflation, debt supply, and uncertainty?
If the 10-year Treasury stays above 5%, what breaks first: mortgages, stocks, business investment, or the bond market itself?