RBA November Hike Odds Drop to 20% After Australia August Inflation Hits 4%
Updated
Updated · ABC News · Sep 30
RBA November Hike Odds Drop to 20% After Australia August Inflation Hits 4%
3 articles · Updated · ABC News · Sep 30
Summary
Money markets cut the chance of a November RBA rate increase to about 20% after August CPI rose 4.0% year on year, below the 4.1% economists had expected.
Underlying inflation gave traders more comfort: trimmed mean CPI held at 3.6% for a third straight month, even as headline inflation accelerated from 3.5% in July.
Housing and fuel drove the August rise, with new dwelling prices up 5.4% over 12 months and automotive fuel prices jumping 14.8% in the month as oil prices rose and fuel-tax relief faded.
The data landed a day after the RBA raised rates for a fourth time this year to a 15-year high, underscoring its concern that inflation could stay embedded.
Economists remain split on what comes next: Westpac and EY still see another move this year if energy-led price pressures persist, while critics argue supply shocks and housing shortages limit what higher rates can fix.