Updated
Updated · ABC News · Sep 30
RBA November Hike Odds Drop to 20% After Australia August Inflation Hits 4%
Updated
Updated · ABC News · Sep 30

RBA November Hike Odds Drop to 20% After Australia August Inflation Hits 4%

3 articles · Updated · ABC News · Sep 30

Summary

  • Money markets cut the chance of a November RBA rate increase to about 20% after August CPI rose 4.0% year on year, below the 4.1% economists had expected.
  • Underlying inflation gave traders more comfort: trimmed mean CPI held at 3.6% for a third straight month, even as headline inflation accelerated from 3.5% in July.
  • Housing and fuel drove the August rise, with new dwelling prices up 5.4% over 12 months and automotive fuel prices jumping 14.8% in the month as oil prices rose and fuel-tax relief faded.
  • The data landed a day after the RBA raised rates for a fourth time this year to a 15-year high, underscoring its concern that inflation could stay embedded.
  • Economists remain split on what comes next: Westpac and EY still see another move this year if energy-led price pressures persist, while critics argue supply shocks and housing shortages limit what higher rates can fix.

Insights

If Australia’s inflation miss lowered November hike odds, why is core inflation still too sticky for the RBA to relax?
With cash rates at a 15-year high, what would actually force the RBA to hike again despite slowing demand?
Are higher rates fighting the wrong battle if Australia’s inflation is being driven mainly by housing shortages and fuel costs?