Talarico Leads Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate Poll as GOP Enthusiasm Splits
Updated
Updated · Fox News · Oct 1
Talarico Leads Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate Poll as GOP Enthusiasm Splits
3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Oct 1
Summary
Fox News’ Sept. 24-28 poll of 881 likely Texas voters puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 51%-49%, a margin within the survey’s ±3-point error range.
Talarico’s edge is driven by stronger ratings and crossover support: he is +8 favorable while Paxton is -18, and 8% of Republicans prefer Democratic Senate control versus 1% of Democrats backing the GOP.
Republican softness shows up inside the party, where non-MAGA Republicans are less engaged than MAGA voters and 20% of March primary backers of Sen. John Cornyn now support Talarico.
Cost-of-living pressure also helps Democrats: 70% call it extremely important, and voters who say they are falling behind financially back Talarico by 32 points.
The result underscores how competitive the race has become in a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024, even as Republican Gov. Greg Abbott still leads his own race 52%-47%.