AI Lifts Expected Software Engineering Productivity 32.6% From 2022 to 2025
Updated
Updated · InfoWorld · Oct 2
AI Lifts Expected Software Engineering Productivity 32.6% From 2022 to 2025
2 articles · Updated · InfoWorld · Oct 2
Summary
A National Bureau of Economic Research paper estimated AI raised the market’s expected present value of software engineering productivity by a permanent 32.6% between November 2022 and December 2025.
The researchers inferred that gain from stock-price reactions: firms more dependent on software engineers should see bigger profit expectations when AI news signals higher coding productivity.
The analysis focused on enterprises outside the software and semiconductor industries, aiming to size AI’s broader macroeconomic impact rather than measure output at any single engineering team.
The result does not mean every developer is already 32.6% more productive, but it offers a benchmark for companies weighing AI-tool subscriptions and usage fees against payroll spending.