New York Cocoa Futures Climb to $5,670 as El Niño Threatens West African Harvests
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 5
New York Cocoa Futures Climb to $5,670 as El Niño Threatens West African Harvests
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 5
Summary
$5,670 a ton — New York cocoa futures closed higher Friday, reversing the prior session’s drop as traders refocused on supply risks ahead of Halloween demand.
Goldman Sachs said a potentially powerful El Niño could trigger another supply squeeze, with this season already echoing the 2023-24 crisis pattern of heavy rain followed by unusual dryness.
Inventories are tighter and physical supplies less buffered than before, though analysts and consultants said the market is better positioned than in 2024 and is unlikely to repeat the liquidity-driven spike to $12,565.
Chocolate makers are still absorbing the fallout through hedging, reformulation and price increases, while Lindt cut its 2026 sales-growth outlook and Barry Callebaut reported a 4.4% confectionery market decline.
The broader risk is repeated climate shocks in cocoa-growing regions, raising the prospect of a structural decline in production and eventually testing how much higher prices consumers will tolerate.
With cocoa harvests collapsing again, will your favorite Halloween chocolate soon be replaced by synthetic alternatives to keep prices down?
Are repeated climate shocks permanently destroying the global chocolate supply, or is this just another excuse for companies to shrink your candy bars?
As extreme weather batters West African crops, which major candy brand will be the first to crack under the relentless cocoa price squeeze?