Goldman Sees Diesel Cracks Above $40 Through 2027 as Refining Capacity Shrinks
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 6
Goldman Sees Diesel Cracks Above $40 Through 2027 as Refining Capacity Shrinks
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 6
Summary
Goldman Sachs expects diesel prices to stay elevated through 2027, with global diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads averaging above $40 a barrel in 2027 versus a typical $20.
Refinery limits are the main driver: Goldman says recovering demand and inventory rebuilding could force the global system to its highest utilization in two decades, even if Brent crude steadies near $80.
Supply remains tight because refining capacity outside China is projected to shrink by about 300,000 barrels per day in 2026, while roughly 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern capacity is still offline and damaged Russian plants curb diesel output.
A G7 plan to release 100 million barrels over four months pushed European gasoil futures down 5.75%, but Goldman, CLSA and Saudi Aramco say emergency stocks may ease winter shortages without fixing the structural shortage.
CLSA estimates rebuilding inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years, leaving refined-product markets vulnerable even as Gulf crude flows normalize.