Third-Party Candidates Threaten to Sway 5 Key Senate Races With 2-5% Vote Shares
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · Oct 6
Third-Party Candidates Threaten to Sway 5 Key Senate Races With 2-5% Vote Shares
3 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Oct 6
Summary
Four weeks before Election Day, third-party and independent candidates are complicating Senate control in several battlegrounds, with operatives in both parties warning small vote shares could decide close races.
In Kansas, Libertarian David Graham is polling as high as 5%; a New York Times/Siena survey showed a deadlock with him included, versus a 1-point Roger Marshall lead without him.
Texas Republicans are especially wary that Libertarian Ted Brown could peel off 2% to 3% from Ken Paxton, after Brown drew more than 250,000 votes in the 2024 Senate race.
Democrats see the dynamic helping them more because Trump remains underwater even in states he won, though Republicans argue Libertarians usually fade by Election Day and do not draw only from GOP voters.
The spoiler risk cuts both ways: Democrats were relieved when Nebraska's Legal Marijuana Now candidate dropped out, but in Montana, Alani Bankhead and Seth Bodnar are splitting the center-left vote while Republican Kurt Alme leads.