Early Voting Erodes October Surprise Power in U.S. Elections, Starting in States Like California
Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · Oct 8
Early Voting Erodes October Surprise Power in U.S. Elections, Starting in States Like California
1 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · Oct 8
Summary
Political operatives from both parties say late-campaign “October Surprise” attacks now rarely remake U.S. elections because voters lock in views earlier and campaigns face a far noisier information environment.
Early voting is a central reason: California, Maine and Montana began voting this week, with Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina set to follow next week, shrinking the window for a last-minute revelation to change ballots.
Campaigns also push messages directly through social media and paid ads, while parties vet candidates earlier, making damaging stories more likely to surface before primaries or with enough time to replace nominees.
Recent races still show exceptions — including Herschel Walker in 2022, Cal Cunningham in 2020 and Roy Moore in 2017 — but strategists say those are now likelier to be campaign-ending scandals than routine late hits.
The shift helps explain why opposition research is often released as soon as it is ready, reflecting a broader move from one knockout blow to repeated “body blows” over a longer campaign.