WTO Lifts 2026 Goods Trade Forecast to 3.9% as AI Equipment Demand Surges
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 8
WTO Lifts 2026 Goods Trade Forecast to 3.9% as AI Equipment Demand Surges
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 8
Summary
3.9% goods-trade growth is now the WTO’s 2026 forecast, nearly double its March projection, after global commerce proved more resilient than expected.
67% growth in AI-related goods trade in the first half of 2026 drove about half of the increase in global goods-trade value, offsetting damage from Trump tariffs and the Middle East war.
24% lower Middle East crude exports and a 47% drop in LNG shipments show the conflict’s toll, though other regions increased energy and fertilizer output to replace disrupted supplies.
4.1% growth is forecast for 2027, but the WTO said the rebound remains uneven across regions and sectors despite businesses adapting to higher energy costs and shipping disruptions.