Kalshi Traders See 87% Odds U.S. Gas Stays Above $4 Through Nov. 3
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 8
Kalshi Traders See 87% Odds U.S. Gas Stays Above $4 Through Nov. 3
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 8
Summary
Kalshi traders assign an 87% chance that the AAA national average for gasoline stays above $4 a gallon on Election Day, though only a 42% chance it remains above $4.25.
$4.36 a gallon on Thursday, the national average is below late May's $4.56 peak but has climbed again after dipping to $3.79 in early July.
The earlier surge followed the U.S.-Iran war and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle East oil exports.
Diesel remains even tighter: Kalshi puts 68% odds on prices staying above $6 on Nov. 3 after a Sept. 22 peak near $6.53 and a pullback to $6.28.
High fuel costs are feeding a top voter affordability issue ahead of the midterms, especially in farm and diesel-reliant states with competitive Senate races, as Kalshi gives Democrats 63% odds of flipping the chamber.