Kalshi Traders See 3.6% September CPI, Put 2026 Inflation Peak Behind Us
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 12
Kalshi Traders See 3.6% September CPI, Put 2026 Inflation Peak Behind Us
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 12
Summary
Kalshi traders expect Wednesday’s CPI report to show inflation at 3.6% in September, up from 3.4% in August and matching the FactSet consensus.
That forecast still implies 2026 inflation has likely already topped out: traders assign just under one-in-three odds that headline CPI will make a new high after May’s 4.2% peak.
Core inflation is seen holding at 2.4% year over year in September, also in line with economists’ estimates, but traders do not expect much relief beyond that.
Only 6% odds are priced for core inflation to fall below 2.2% this year, underscoring a view that underlying price pressures will stay elevated through the rest of 2026.