IMF Warns Global Economy Nears Resilience Limits as Growth Outlook Rises to 3.1%

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Oct 13

Emergency oil stocks are dwindling and fiscal buffers are stretched, the IMF said, warning the global economy could soon hit its resilience limits after absorbing the US-Iran war better than feared.
Strategic stock releases and rerouted oil flows away from the Strait of Hormuz helped contain prices, but the IMF said depleted reserves and high public debt leave governments less able to shield consumers from another shock.
The fund still nudged its 2026 global growth forecast up to 3.1% from 3.0%, kept 2027 at 3.4%, and said inflation will stay higher for longer, with 2027 global inflation now seen at 4.1%.
Middle East escalation remains the main downside risk, the IMF said, with threats to energy infrastructure, cyber-attacks and extreme weather able to push up energy and food prices; it also flagged the risk of an AI-driven market crash.
The warning came as IMF and World Bank meetings opened in Bangkok, where Kristalina Georgieva urged governments to rebuild policy buffers and central banks to stay agile rather than overreact to short-term inflation spikes.