NOAA Sees 83% Chance of Strongest El Niño Since 1950, Driving Stormier Southern Winter
Updated
Updated · Fox Weather · Oct 15
NOAA Sees 83% Chance of Strongest El Niño Since 1950, Driving Stormier Southern Winter
3 articles · Updated · Fox Weather · Oct 15
Summary
NOAA’s winter 2026-27 outlook calls for a cooler, stormier southern U.S. from Southern California to Florida, while much of the North and East is expected to run warmer than average.
An 83% chance that this becomes the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950 underpins the forecast, with central equatorial Pacific waters more than 2°C above normal in September.
That setup can extend the Pacific jet stream and steer more storms across the southern tier, raising odds of heavy rain, coastal nor’easters and near-normal Southeast temperatures.
NOAA said the wetter pattern could ease drought in the Southwest and Southern Plains, but warned that rain on dry ground can also trigger flash floods and mudslides.
Forecasters also see below-average seasonal snow odds across many traditional northern snow belts, while drought is projected to develop in the Northern Rockies and parts of the Intermountain West.