China's Q3 GDP Seen Rising 4.4% as Exports Power Toward $1.2 Trillion Surplus
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Oct 18
China's Q3 GDP Seen Rising 4.4% as Exports Power Toward $1.2 Trillion Surplus
2 articles · Updated · Reuters · Oct 18
Summary
China's economy is expected to have grown 4.4% in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from 4.3% in Q2, with quarterly growth seen accelerating to 1.1% from 0.9%.
Hot demand for technology goods, a September rebound in factory activity and late-quarter policy easing helped lift momentum, according to the Reuters poll and economists.
September data due alongside GDP is expected to show industrial output growth quickening to 5.5% and retail sales edging up to 0.6%, while fixed-asset investment likely fell 7.3% in January-September.
Exports remain the main growth engine, with September's wider-than-expected trade surplus keeping China on track to top last year's record $1.2 trillion surplus even as EU trade tensions rise.
Analysts still see full-year 2026 growth at just 4.5%—the bottom of Beijing's target range—and expect more fiscal support as weak consumption, soft private investment and limited room for monetary easing persist.