Can turnout, not persuasion, decide Texas’s razor-thin Senate race as younger and Latino voters gain influence?

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Yes. The best available polling suggests turnout is more likely than late persuasion to decide Texas’s Senate race. The CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,492 registered voters, conducted Oct. 8-16, shows Ken Paxton and James Talarico essentially tied, with the margin well within the poll’s error range. Other recent surveys point the same way. In a race this close, the decisive question is not whether many voters will switch sides, but which coalition actually shows up. That matters because the two candidates’ paths are different. Paxton benefits from Texas’s Republican baseline, strong backing from Republican voters, and support on immigration and deportation policy. Talarico’s opening comes from stronger Democratic enthusiasm, better ratings on personal character, and a clear advantage among voters who say higher prices have hurt them. He is also running well with independents, younger voters and, in recent polling, Latino voters. The key uncertainty is whether those groups vote at high enough rates. Younger Texans favor Talarico by large margins, but they have historically lower turnout and face registration and access hurdles in Texas. Latino voters now make up nearly one-third of the eligible electorate and a large share of young voters, but turnout in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley remains uneven, prompting major get-out-the-vote efforts. So the evidence points to a turnout election. If younger and Latino voters participate at unusually high levels, Talarico has a plausi…

Texas Senate Race Ties in CBS Poll of 1,492 Voters as Turnout Becomes Decisive

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Texas Senate Race Ties in CBS Poll of 1,492 Voters as Turnout Becomes Decisive

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