Anthropic Emerges as 75% IPO Favorite for 2026 as OpenAI and Others Delay

2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 19

Kalshi traders now give Anthropic a 75% chance of becoming the only major company to officially announce a 2026 IPO, after it confidentially filed with the SEC in early June.
OpenAI's decision to rule out a 2026 listing and a wave of postponed offerings sharply thinned the field, leaving no other company on Kalshi's board above 50% odds.
Plaid's IPO odds have fallen to 10% from 50% in January, while Deel sits at 3%, Databricks at 1% and OpenAI at 3%, underscoring how quickly expectations have collapsed.
U.S. IPO proceeds are still up this year thanks to megacap debuts including SpaceX in June, but the number of IPOs priced is down 33% from 2025, according to Renaissance Capital.
Anthropic's own path is not clear-cut: its third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, but slower growth and a revised valuation range starting at $1.5 trillion have raised doubts about AI IPO pricing.