Updated
Updated · Reuters · Oct 20
Sterling Rises 0.3% as UK Jobs Data Bolsters November BoE Hike Bets
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Oct 20

Sterling Rises 0.3% as UK Jobs Data Bolsters November BoE Hike Bets

3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Oct 20

Summary

  • $1.3343 marked sterling's level against the dollar after UK labour data showed payrolls rising, unemployment falling and wage growth beating expectations through August.
  • November 5 rate-hike bets strengthened with money markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point BoE increase and fully pricing four hikes by mid-2027.
  • 84.04 pence per euro left the pound up 0.3% there as well, near its strongest level against the single currency since May 2025.
  • Some economists cautioned the data mainly supports a November move, with falling vacancies and Brent above $111 keeping the broader policy outlook tied to Middle East-driven energy risks.

Insights

With UK vacancies plummeting and energy prices soaring, could a November Bank of England rate hike trigger an unexpected recession?
Will surging oil prices and sticky wage growth force the Bank of England into aggressive rate hikes well into 2027?
Given the admitted flaws in ONS employment data, is the Bank of England risking a major policy error by raising rates this November?