Alaska GOP Fears 4-Way Senate Race Could Oust Dan Sullivan as Same-Name Rival Siphons Votes

Q: What happens to a voter's voice if they fall for name confusion and fail to rank a backup candidate?

If a voter mistakenly picks the wrong “Dan Sullivan” and does not rank a backup, that voter’s ballot can stop counting once that candidate is eliminated. In Alaska’s ranked-choice system, every ballot counts for its highest-ranked remaining candidate. If no one wins a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is removed and those ballots transfer to the next ranked choice. But if a voter ranked only one candidate and that candidate is knocked out, the ballot becomes what Alaska election materials call an “inactive” or “exhausted” ballot. It is not counted in later rounds that decide the winner. That means the voter’s voice is heard only in the early round for the mistaken candidate, not in the final head-to-head stage if their ballot has no backup ranking. In a close race, that can matter. Recent Alaska elections have shown this is not just theoretical: meaningful shares of ballots have exhausted when voters did not rank additional candidates. The practical effect is that name confusion alone does not automatically hand the vote to someone else, but failing to rank another acceptable candidate can leave the voter with no say after the mistaken choice is eliminated. By contrast, if that voter ranks the intended candidate next, the ballot can still transfer and remain active. So the voter does not lose the ballot immediately, but they risk losing influence over the decisive rounds of the election.

3 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Oct 20

Two recent polls simulating Alaska’s ranked-choice count showed former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola defeating Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan in the state’s four-candidate Senate race.
The main Republican worry is retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan Jr., whose identical name could peel away first-choice votes from the incumbent and leave those ballots without Sullivan as a backup ranking.
Alaska’s system lets voters rank multiple candidates, with later choices counted if no one tops 50% on the first round, making even a small diversion of initial support potentially decisive.
Art Hackney, who runs a pro-Sullivan super PAC, said the same-name challenger is certain to win some share of the vote and could significantly affect the outcome in a close contest.