UN Says 1.5C Warming Limit Will Be Missed as 2.8C Path Persists
Updated
Updated · CNN · Oct 21
UN Says 1.5C Warming Limit Will Be Missed as 2.8C Path Persists
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Oct 21
Summary
A new UN emissions-gap report says breaching the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit is now “imminent and unavoidable,” shifting the goal from prevention to keeping any overshoot brief and reversible.
The report recasts the benchmark around peak warming, finding the lowest-overshoot path would cap temperatures at 1.7C to 1.8C before returning to 1.5C by 2100.
That pathway would require emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels, plus tripled renewable power by 2035, a coal phaseout by 2040 and far larger carbon removal.
Current pledges fall far short, delivering only 5% to 8% cuts by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035; existing policies point to about 2.8C peak warming, while fulfilled pledges imply roughly 2.6C.
UNEP said the outlook worsened partly after the United States left the Paris Agreement, and scientists warned each added 0.1C raises risks of irreversible damage and roughly $1.2 trillion in annual GDP losses.