Texas Senate Race Locks at 49%-49% as Paxton Rebuilds GOP Support
Updated
Updated · Fox News · Oct 21
Texas Senate Race Locks at 49%-49% as Paxton Rebuilds GOP Support
3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Oct 21
Summary
A Fox News poll of likely Texas voters shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by John Cornyn.
The shift from Talarico’s 51%-49% lead last month reflects Paxton gaining ground with conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and Republicans who backed Cornyn in the primary.
Talarico still runs strongest with Black voters, urban voters, under-30s and college-educated women, while Hispanic voters now favor him 64%-34% after swinging toward Trump in 2024.
Paxton enters the final stretch with weaker personal ratings—41% favorable to 58% unfavorable—but 90% of Republicans back him, and he leads by 50 points among voters who dislike both candidates.
The broader Texas picture still leans Republican: voters prefer GOP Senate control 51%-47%, and Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52%-47% in the governor’s race.