Final Israeli Polls Show 54-50 Stalemate as Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats
Updated
Updated · Jewish Insider · Oct 22
Final Israeli Polls Show 54-50 Stalemate as Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats
3 articles · Updated · Jewish Insider · Oct 22
Summary
Israel’s last publishable polls before the Oct. 27 vote show no outright winner, with Netanyahu’s bloc averaging 54 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition 50—both below the 61 needed for a Knesset majority.
The apparent deadlock is muddied by a sharp media split: an average of the last two days’ mainstream polls puts Eisenkot’s bloc ahead 52-50, while Channel 14 and i24 News polls project Netanyahu’s coalition at 61 seats.
Likud is polling at 23 seats versus 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party, while Arab parties Joint List and Ra’am average 14 seats and could outperform if Arab turnout reaches the 68%-69% estimated by Stat-Net.
Higher Arab turnout would also raise the vote threshold for entering parliament, a risk for smaller parties such as Amcha Yisrael and Reservists and Economy, which are hovering around the 3.25% cutoff.
With Israeli law barring new poll releases from Friday until election day, these conflicting final snapshots leave coalition math—and the chance of another stalemate—unresolved.