U.S. Air Travel Heads for First Drop Since 2020 as Fares Jump 22%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 23
U.S. Air Travel Heads for First Drop Since 2020 as Fares Jump 22%
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 23
Summary
9.3 million fewer passengers were screened at U.S. airport checkpoints from April through Thursday than a year earlier, putting 2026 on track for the first annual decline in air travel since 2020.
Jet fuel prices above double year-ago levels pushed September airfares up more than 22%, and major carriers said they are deliberately favoring higher yields over fuller planes.
American's third-quarter load factor fell to 83.4% from 86%, while Southwest's revenue passengers dropped 3.2% to about 33.5 million even as its average fare rose nearly $50 to $231.69.
United showed the strategy can still support growth, flying 2.4% more passengers and posting a 16% unit-revenue increase, while executives across the industry cited strong premium-cabin demand.
Airlines have cut 2026 profit forecasts and trimmed capacity plans as fuel stays high—United sees $4.80-a-gallon fuel in the fourth quarter—raising the risk that scarcer seats keep holiday fares elevated.