Duke Beats Virginia 19-16 on Nate Sheppard's 28-Yard TD Pass

Q: With historic AP Poll chaos and mounting injuries, which unexpected team will secure a College Football Playoff spot this season?

BYU looks like the best unexpected playoff bet. The Cougars fit this season’s chaos better than most. They are 6-0, ranked No. 2, and own one of the country’s best résumé wins after beating Notre Dame 28-24. In a year when elite teams keep losing and injuries are reshaping races across the SEC and Big Ten, BYU has already shown it can survive a top-tier test and still controls its path in the Big 12. The numbers support that case. Multiple playoff projections now put BYU’s CFP odds in the 60% to 70% range, with near-lock status if it finishes 11-1 or unbeaten. In the current 12-team format, that matters: BYU does not have to be perfect if its Notre Dame win remains strong and the Big 12 produces another ranked title-game caliber opponent such as Utah or Texas Tech. The path is also cleaner than for many surprise contenders. Pitt has lost its starting quarterback Mason Heintschel for the season, making an ACC run much harder. UCLA is unbeaten but still needs to prove its résumé can hold up in a Big Ten comparison. Texas Tech is a serious dark horse, but its schedule may not offer enough marquee wins unless it reaches and wins the Big 12 title game. If one true outsider breaks through, BYU has the best blend of ranking, signature win, manageable schedule and favorable playoff math. The Cougars are no longer just a feel-good story; they are the most credible unexpected CFP team on the board.

3 articles · Updated · NCAA.com · Oct 24

A 28-yard touchdown pass from running back Nate Sheppard with just over 1 minute left lifted Duke to a 19-16 road win over Virginia.
Sheppard entered as the ACC's leading rusher, but Virginia held him to 55 yards on 15 carries before Duke turned to the late trick play.
The victory moved Duke to 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the ACC, while Virginia fell to 4-4 and 2-3.
Virginia has now lost three of its last four games, unable to get the final stop after keeping Duke's ground game largely contained.