Apollo's Slok Warns $1 Trillion AI Buildout Lacks Payoff as Debt Stress Spreads

3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Oct 24

Torsten Slok said AI has delivered “zero financial payoff” for U.S. companies outside hyperscalers, arguing most firms still see AI as a cost center rather than a growth driver.
His case rests on economics: token-spending growth has slowed, compute demand is price-sensitive, and the marginal cost of compute now exceeds the marginal benefit users get from it.
Slok also flagged financing risk, saying 80% of the top 1% of AI spenders are VC-backed startups, suggesting a chunk of demand is being funded by venture capital instead of operating earnings.
That skepticism hit markets as traders questioned whether AI capex can keep climbing from an estimated $800 billion this year to more than $1 trillion next year.
Credit stress is already showing: Meta's five-year CDS hit a record 114.79 basis points after heavy funding moves, while CoreWeave's stock is down more than 30% this month and its CDS reached 1,145 basis points.