Four Elections in 10 Days Could Reshape Global Politics as Democracy Falls to 1978 Levels
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Oct 25
Four Elections in 10 Days Could Reshape Global Politics as Democracy Falls to 1978 Levels
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Oct 25
Summary
Four votes in Brazil, Serbia, Israel and the US over the next 10 days could either slow a global authoritarian drift or reinforce it, with all four races described as close contests over basic democratic norms.
V-Dem says the average global citizen now has democratic freedoms last seen in 1978, framing the elections as a test of whether pro-democracy forces can reverse a broader decline.
Brazil and Serbia vote Sunday: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Brazil's runoff after vowing constitutional changes and a pardon for his father, while Aleksandar Vučić faces a student-led Serbian challenge that could trigger unrest.
Tuesday brings Israel's election, where Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition trails an opposition bloc, and the US midterms on 3 November, where Democrats are favored to win at least the House but may still struggle to curb Donald Trump.
The contests are also linked across borders: Trump's Maga movement backs Netanyahu, Vučić and Bolsonaro, while Serbia is buying $2 billion in Israeli defense systems and authoritarian gains in one country could embolden allies elsewhere.
Will a razor-thin election in Brazil dismantle recent Amazon protections and trigger a catastrophic global environmental domino effect?
Could the covert sharing of military-grade spyware between nations fundamentally rewrite the rules of modern democratic elections?
How did a deadly railway collapse in Serbia trigger a high-tech spyware war with ties to international surveillance networks?
Democracy at 1978 Levels: How the 2026 Global Election Cluster Tests the World’s Fragile Democratic Order
Overview
This report explores how a wave of student-led protests in Bangladesh and Serbia triggered major political shifts, with Bangladesh’s revolution leading to a new parliamentary majority and Serbia’s Novi Sad tragedy sparking the rise of the Student List movement. In Brazil, the judiciary’s prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro led to U.S. economic retaliation, which pushed Brazil closer to China. Meanwhile, U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran caused energy price spikes, fueling cost-of-living concerns in the U.S. midterms. The report shows how domestic upheavals, international sanctions, and shifting alliances are deeply interconnected, shaping the global struggle between democracy and autocracy.