Israel Closes Polls at 12,000 Sites as Exit Polls Loom in Tight Vote

Q: If no bloc reaches 61 seats, who really decides Israel’s next government: the biggest party, the smallest parties, or the special ballots?

If no bloc reaches 61 seats, Israel’s next government is usually decided less by the biggest party than by whichever combination of smaller parties can create a viable majority — or at least survive a Knesset confidence vote. Under Israel’s system, the largest party does not automatically govern. The president consults party leaders and gives the first mandate to the lawmaker judged most likely to assemble a coalition, typically for 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. That makes small and mid-sized parties the real power brokers in a deadlock. They can demand cabinet posts, budgets, policy concessions or even refuse to back either camp. Israel has recent precedent: in 2021, the largest party did not form the government; rivals did. The special ballots can still matter a great deal, but mostly as a late-stage shaper of the math rather than the ultimate decision-maker. Hundreds of thousands of “double-envelope” votes from soldiers, hospital patients, diplomats, prisoners and displaced voters are counted later and can shift one or two seats, sometimes more in a very close race. They can also push a party above or below the 3.25% threshold, which can dramatically alter bloc totals because votes for parties under the threshold are discarded. So in practice, the outcome is determined by coalition arithmetic: special ballots may change the numbers, but the smallest parties often decide who can turn those numbers into a government.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 27

Israel’s polls have closed, and broadcasters are expected to release initial exit polls shortly, offering only an early read in a race too close for precise projections.
More than 12,000 polling places now begin a hand count, with paper tallies later sent to regional hubs for electronic recording before authorities publish first official results hours later.
No party is expected to come close to an outright majority, so the bigger test starts after the count: coalition talks that could take weeks or even months.
Israel’s parliamentary system means the largest party may still fail to form a government, as happened in 2021 when Likud won the most seats but could not build a majority.