Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 28
Gundlach Urges Fed to Hike From 3.75%-4% as December Move Seen 85% Likely
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 28

Gundlach Urges Fed to Hike From 3.75%-4% as December Move Seen 85% Likely

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 28

Summary

  • Jeff Gundlach said the Federal Reserve is "behind the curve" after holding rates steady in October, arguing policymakers should still raise by 25 basis points in December.
  • He pointed to headline CPI heading toward 4%, a commodity bull market and U.S. oil staying above $100 a barrel, saying those conditions do not justify a pause.
  • Gundlach also said the fed funds rate at 3.75%-4% sits well below the 2-year Treasury yield near 4.7%, which he sees as evidence policy remains too loose.
  • CME FedWatch still shows an 85% chance of a December hike, while the Fed said future moves will depend on incoming data as it works toward its 2% inflation goal.
  • Beyond the rate call, Gundlach backed fewer rate-setting meetings, after Chair Kevin Warsh said one 2027 meeting and two in 2028 will focus on strategy rather than a fed funds vote.

Insights

Why does Gundlach prefer equal-weight stocks, commodities, and cash if a December Fed hike is already 85% priced in?
If Jeff Gundlach is right that the Fed is still behind the curve, what breaks first: inflation, stocks, or the bond market?