Do headline rallies and personal feuds actually sway close statewide races, or are local issues and turnout doing the real work?

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Headline rallies and personal feuds can matter at the margins, but the evidence in these races suggests local issues and turnout are doing more of the real work. The clearest sign is Ohio. Despite heavy national attention, a high-profile Trump rally, and a widely seen attack ad in the governor’s race, polling still showed only modest movement. The Suffolk/USA TODAY survey found the Senate race unchanged from September and the governor’s race tightening, but the controversial Ramaswamy ad appeared to move virtually no voters: fewer than 1% said it shifted them from Amy Acton to Vivek Ramaswamy. That is consistent with broader research showing campaign ads and emotional appeals usually have small, short-lived persuasive effects, especially in polarized environments. Rallies are more useful as organizational tools than persuasion engines. They can raise money, generate coverage, energize loyal supporters, and help campaigns collect volunteers and push early voting. That can matter in a close statewide race, but mostly through turnout rather than conversion. Georgia reporting points in that direction: candidates and surrogates were stressing affordability, Medicaid, SNAP, the Iran war, and local concerns, while both parties focused intensely on early-vote participation. The underlying conditions in each state still look more decisive than the Obama-Trump feud. In Georgia, voter frustration over prices and governing performance appears to be shaping choices. In Ohio, candidate-sp…

Obama Revives Cheesecake Factory Swipe at Trump as 2 Ex-Presidents Duel at Midterm Rallies

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Obama Revives Cheesecake Factory Swipe at Trump as 2 Ex-Presidents Duel at Midterm Rallies

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