Alaska Governor Orders Probe Into 2nd Dan Sullivan Bid as Senate Race Tightens

Q: Why are experts split on whether Alaska’s ranked-choice ballot reduced confusion in the Sullivan name controversy?

Experts are split because Alaska’s ranked-choice ballot can both reduce and complicate claims of voter confusion. Those who say it reduced confusion point to the ballot design and the voting rules together. Voters saw the incumbent identified as “Dan S. Sullivan,” with his party and incumbent status, while the other candidate appeared as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” with no party label. Ranked-choice voting also let a voter rank both Sullivans, meaning someone unsure which Sullivan they wanted could list both and still keep their vote within that preference set. Alaska officials and some election-law specialists say that feature makes accidental vote-splitting less damaging than in a standard single-choice race. Other experts say ranked-choice does not solve the core problem and may even make it harder to prove what happened. A voter can still mistakenly rank the wrong Sullivan first, and ranked rankings do not reliably show intent. Analysts caution that unusual ranking patterns might hint at confusion, but they cannot establish it with certainty. Because ballots are secret, investigators cannot easily connect a ballot to a voter and ask what the voter meant. That is why the disagreement persists. One side sees ranked-choice as a practical safeguard that gives confused voters a backup option. The other sees it as no substitute for a clear ballot and says the system leaves no dependable way, after the fact, to measure whether name confusion changed the result.

3 articles · Updated · BBC.com · Oct 29

Mike Dunleavy directed Alaska's Department of Public Safety to investigate whether an alleged effort to recruit a second Dan Sullivan into the Senate race broke state law and warrants criminal or civil action.
The order followed a New York Times report that people tied to Mary Peltola's campaign and senior Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee aides tried to enlist spoiler candidates to siphon votes from incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
Peltola's campaign and the DSCC denied involvement, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. — the retired teacher also on the ballot — has said he is running in good faith and has no campaign links.
Alaska's Supreme Court already rejected Republican efforts to remove the second Sullivan from the ballot, where voters will see Dan S. Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. listed separately.
Tuesday's vote is one of the tightest midterm contests and could delay clarity on control of Congress, especially after Trump's administration also challenged certification if the Republican loses.