David Bensoussan Bets $1.5 Million on 12-Plus Midterm Races, Eyeing $340,000 Payout
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 29
David Bensoussan Bets $1.5 Million on 12-Plus Midterm Races, Eyeing $340,000 Payout
2 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 29
Summary
More than $1.5 million has been wagered by David Bensoussan across over a dozen U.S. midterm contests on Polymarket and Kalshi, with the trader positioning for gains after the Nov. 3 vote.
Bensoussan, known online as Scottilicious, says he blends polling, economic data and voter-sentiment reads with intuition; he has already made more than $1.7 million in prediction-market profits, mostly from elections.
Specific bets include $113,000 on Democrat Mary Peltola in Alaska’s Senate race and $119,000 that Republicans will not control both the House and Senate.
A correct slate could net him more than $340,000, while a stronger-than-expected Republican showing could cost him hundreds of thousands; he says he limits risk by making his biggest wagers when odds top roughly 75%.
How did a real estate investor turn election prediction markets into a multimillion-dollar strategy—and what happens if his high-confidence bets go wrong?
If one trader can stake $1.5 million on election contracts, how much power do big bettors have to move odds and shape public perception?
Are fast-growing prediction markets becoming serious forecasting tools or a risky arena vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading, and legal crackdowns?