NYT/Siena Alaska Poll Matched Primary by 1 Point as Midterm Accuracy Fears Persist
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 30
NYT/Siena Alaska Poll Matched Primary by 1 Point as Midterm Accuracy Fears Persist
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 30
Summary
A New York Times/Siena review found its Alaska Senate primary poll closely tracked the August result, with Mary Peltola leading Dan Sullivan by 6 points among surveyed primary voters.
The actual primary margin was about 5 points in Democrats’ favor — or 7 points excluding votes for another candidate named Dan Sullivan — suggesting the poll did not overstate Democratic strength.
That early test offers only limited reassurance because Alaska’s top-four primary resembled a general election, with all voters sharing one ballot and the top four advancing.
The pollster said the bigger unresolved risk for the midterms remains nonresponse bias, especially the possibility that Donald Trump supporters are less likely to answer surveys.