Polymarket, Kalshi Face 2026 Midterm Test as Election Bets Drive Growth
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 30
Polymarket, Kalshi Face 2026 Midterm Test as Election Bets Drive Growth
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 30
Summary
U.S. midterm elections are shaping up as the biggest accuracy test yet for prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, which want strong calls to prove they can outperform polls and forecasts.
Brazil’s election offered a warning: bettors briefly gave Flávio Bolsonaro roughly 80% odds before vote counting showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva winning and traders rushed to reprice the market.
Both platforms have surged in popularity by letting users bet on events from the World Series to Cyber Monday spending, turning political forecasting into a high-profile commercial opportunity.
Kalshi and Polymarket are already marketing aggressively ahead of the vote — including a Times Square billboard and a TV ad — to attract users and collect more trading fees.
A strong midterm showing could help legitimize prediction markets as forecasting tools; a miss would undercut a central pitch behind their recent expansion.