Kalshi Bettors Give Democrats 68% Odds of Midterm Sweep as $73.3 Million Floods Congressional Market
Updated
Updated · The Daily Beast · Oct 30
Kalshi Bettors Give Democrats 68% Odds of Midterm Sweep as $73.3 Million Floods Congressional Market
3 articles · Updated · The Daily Beast · Oct 30
Summary
Kalshi traders now put Democrats' chances of winning both chambers next week at 68%, up from 30% at the start of the year; Polymarket is slightly higher at 70%.
That shift accelerated since early September, when Donald Trump's rally tour began and polls started showing Democrats ahead in several key Senate races.
The House looks closest to settled, with Polymarket giving Democrats a 94% chance of taking it, while only 6% of Kalshi bettors expect Republicans to keep both chambers.
Senate optimism rests on six pickup opportunities — North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Texas and Kansas — even though Democrats still need four seats and some leads remain within polling margins.
Prediction markets are also pricing in potential breakthroughs in red states, including 70% odds for Democrat James Talarico in Texas and 53% for Adam Hamilton in Kansas, though Republicans remain favored in Iowa and South Carolina.