Casale Backs USC +6.5 Against No. 2 Ohio State in Week 9

Q: Did the line move from Ohio State -7 to -6.5 reveal real danger for the Buckeyes in Los Angeles?

Yes — the move from Ohio State -7 to -6.5 is a meaningful warning sign, but not proof the Buckeyes are in major trouble. The key detail is not the half-point itself, but that it crossed 7, one of the most important numbers in football betting. Moving off that number usually signals that the market sees new information as significant. In this case, that information is Ohio State’s quarterback situation: Julian Sayin is out, and true freshman Luke Fahey is expected to make his first career start on the road. That does not mean bettors suddenly believe USC is the better team. Ohio State is still favored because of its overall roster strength, elite defense and game-changing talent such as Jeremiah Smith. But the line shift suggests growing concern that the Buckeyes may be less reliable offensively, especially in sustaining drives if the playbook is simplified for Fahey. The matchup also gives USC some support. The Trojans are at home, where Jayden Maiava has played better, and several analysts expect a tighter, lower-scoring game. That kind of script tends to help underdogs stay within the number. So the line move revealed real risk, specifically that Ohio State may be harder to trust as a road favorite without Sayin. It did not signal panic about the Buckeyes losing outright, but it did show that the market sees a more fragile margin for error in Los Angeles.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Oct 31

USC +6.5 is one of Thomas Casale’s top Week 9 bets, with the handicapper picking the Trojans to stay inside the number against No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday night.
Ohio State’s quarterback situation drives the pick: starter Julian Sayin is out, and true freshman Luke Fahey is expected to make his first career start on the road.
Casale said the line’s move from Ohio State -7 to -6.5 matters because it slipped off the key number of 7, signaling some market concern about the Buckeyes’ offense.
Casale enters Week 9 on a 12-7 run over the last six weeks and said he also likes two other bets, including a big favorite in what he called an awful spot for its opponent.
Week 9 also features several tricky games for contenders, including Georgia favored by 12.5 over Florida after recent top-10 upsets reshaped the college football landscape.