Republicans Face Midterm Risk on Immigration as Border Crossings Drop to 11,000
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 2
Republicans Face Midterm Risk on Immigration as Border Crossings Drop to 11,000
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 2
Summary
Election Day dynamics have turned volatile for Republicans as backlash to Trump’s immigration crackdown weakens their edge on an issue that powered the party in 2024.
Polling now suggests voters are more likely to trust Democrats on immigration, even as Republican voters remain more energized by the issue.
Trump’s second-term overhaul sharply reduced attempted illegal crossings—from nearly 250,000 in November 2023 to about 11,000 in August—but paired that with high-profile raids and deadly ICE shootings.
Los Angeles, Chicago and Minneapolis have seen large-scale enforcement actions, while federal detention capacity has more than doubled through jail contracts, retrofitted warehouses and tent cities.
In competitive House districts, Democrats and Latino activists are testing whether anger over raids suppresses Hispanic turnout or instead mobilizes voters against Republicans.