Democrats Need 3 House Seats and 4 Senate Flips in 2026 Midterms

Q: Why might ranked-choice voting in states like Maine and Alaska keep the nation guessing for days?

Ranked-choice voting in Maine and Alaska can delay a final call because the winner may not be known from the first count. If no candidate gets more than 50% of first-choice votes, election officials must run additional rounds, eliminating the lowest candidate and reallocating those ballots based on voters’ next choices. That process cannot be finished until enough ballots have been received, verified and counted. In Maine, that can be especially slow because ballots must be gathered and checked before the ranked-choice tabulation begins. In close races, officials may need several days to complete that centralized process, particularly in the Senate race or the 2nd Congressional District. Alaska adds another layer of delay. State law allows absentee ballots, including overseas ballots, to arrive up to 15 days after Election Day if they were mailed on time. The state also has major logistical hurdles because of its size and remote precincts, and some ballots are counted by hand. Alaska typically reports only first-choice totals at first and schedules the ranked-choice tabulation later, this year on Nov. 18. That means the nation may see an early leader on election night but still not know the true winner for days. In a close contest, later-arriving ballots and the redistribution of ranked choices can change the outcome even after the initial count.

3 articles · Updated · The Boston Globe · Nov 3

Three House pickups would give Democrats the chamber, while the Senate path is narrower: they must hold four competitive seats and then flip four more states.
Indiana’s 5th District is flagged as an early wave test at 6 p.m.; Republican Victoria Spartz holds a seat Trump carried by 19 points, but polling has the race within the margin of error.
South Carolina and New Hampshire become key Senate reads at 7 p.m., with Democrats expected to defend New Hampshire and watching whether a suddenly competitive South Carolina race signals a broader shift.
Florida could deliver the clearest early House signal at 8 p.m. because it counts quickly; despite maps drawn to give Republicans a 5-point edge, Democrats’ 9-point national House lead could turn a planned 4-seat GOP gain into losses.
The House may look clearer by 9 p.m., but the Senate could take days, with Maine unlikely to be called on election night and Alaska potentially stretching the wait into weeks.