Prediction Markets Give Democrats 73% Odds to Sweep 7 Key Senate Races
Updated
Updated · The Daily Beast · Nov 3
Prediction Markets Give Democrats 73% Odds to Sweep 7 Key Senate Races
3 articles · Updated · The Daily Beast · Nov 3
Summary
Kalshi and Polymarket bettors overwhelmingly expect Democrats to win all seven marquee Senate contests on Tuesday, with Kalshi traders also assigning a 73% chance to a broader Democratic sweep of both chambers.
Texas is the biggest upset threat: James Talarico is priced at 73% against Republican Ken Paxton, while Abdul El-Sayed leads in Michigan at 77%-78% across the two markets.
Ohio's Sherrod Brown stands at 70%-71%, Alaska's Mary Peltola at 70%-71%, Maine's Troy Jackson at 72% on Polymarket, and Kansas' Adam Hamilton at 63%-64%; Iowa's Josh Turek holds only a narrow edge.
More than $100 million has flowed into Kalshi's congressional-control market, and 60% of traders expect Democrats to finish with more than 52 Senate seats.
The market outlook tracks Trump's weak political standing: he acknowledged presidents usually lose midterms, while the report points to a 32% approval rating, higher gas prices tied to the Iran war, and tariff-driven cost increases.