How will the unprecedented surge in early voting alter traditional forecasting models on election night?

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The early-voting surge will make election-night forecasting less reliant on the first in-person precincts and more dependent on modeling how different ballot types are counted and reported. With more than 54 million ballots cast before Election Day and early participation running ahead of 2022 in many battlegrounds, traditional assumptions about the “normal” sequence of returns are less useful. Forecast desks will need to weigh whether a state processes and reports mail ballots early, late, or in batches, because those rules can create misleading swings that reflect counting order rather than changes in voter sentiment. The biggest adjustment is that early-vote data offers a stronger read on the electorate’s composition than in past midterms, but not a direct measure of vote choice. In states with party registration, analysts can see who has voted, not how they voted. That helps estimate turnout patterns among Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters, as well as changes in racial and age composition, but models must still account for crossover voting and the large share of Election Day ballots still to come. This year’s unusually high early participation among Black and Latino voters, and strong early turnout in states such as Michigan, Texas and North Carolina, may improve forecasts of overall engagement. But it also increases the risk of overinterpreting partial data, especially in places where late-counted mail ballots or same-day votes can change the picture. So th…

US Midterm Results Begin Rolling In as Michigan Senate and Turnout Shape 2026 Races

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US Midterm Results Begin Rolling In as Michigan Senate and Turnout Shape 2026 Races

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